The 7th Ethiopian General Election was held on June 1, 2026, across 501 constituencies. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced official results for 486 (out of 547) constituencies on June 21, 2026, stating that revotes or recounts would be conducted in the remaining areas. Subsequently, by early July, the Board published comprehensive constituency-level results on its website. Ethiopia Insider has closely analyzed these detailed election returns to uncover the structural realities behind voter turnout and vote distribution, identifying critical areas that demand policy intervention.
Ethiopia Insider has tracked the 7th General Election comprehensively, from pre-election preparations to polling day and post-election developments. Beyond daily news coverage, the editorial desk has consistently delivered data-driven insights through infographics and aggregate statistical modeling, providing actionable inputs for long-term electoral policy. For instance, following the publication of the official candidate roster, Ethiopia Insider’s in-depth candidate ratio analysis accurately foreshadowed the final outcomes. Building on the official constituency-level data released by the NEBE, this comprehensive analysis compares the outcomes of the 7th General Election with the 6th General Election through narrative reporting, numerical data, and data visualizations.
The pre-election period was defined by the ruling Prosperity Party’s (PP) overwhelming resource and candidate dominance, fielding 461 candidates across most parliamentary constituencies nationwide. In contrast, constrained by financial shortages, security concerns, harassment of party members, and organizational limitations, opposition parties could not field competitive slates across all regions. Consequently, the ruling party ran entirely uncontested in 65 constituencies; similarly, opposition candidates and independents ran without any challenger in 10 constituencies. Furthermore, while some opposition figures criticized the move as political patronage rather than genuine democratic opening, the ruling party opted not to field candidates in 48 constituencies with the stated aim of conceding parliamentary seats to opposition parties and select independents.
When the National Election Board of Ethiopia published certified results for 486 constituencies, the ruling Prosperity Party secured an absolute supermajority by sweeping 438 parliamentary seats. The remaining 48 seats were distributed among various opposition parties and independent candidates, cementing the ruling party’s hold on 90% of the parliamentary seats with certified results. In the remaining constituencies, recounts and fresh elections are scheduled due to procedural irregularities and tallying discrepancies.
Although 40 opposition party representatives and 8 independent candidates won parliamentary seats, the Prosperity Party did not field candidates in 43 of those races. Consequently, opposition figures defeated the ruling party in direct electoral contests in only 5 parliamentary constituencies. Of these five directly contested seats lost by the Prosperity Party, the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) won four in the South Ethiopia Regional State, while an independent candidate won one seat in the Oromia Regional State. As a result, once revotes and recounts are finalized, the total seat tally for non-ruling entities could increase by at least five.
The narrow collection of 48 parliamentary seats and limited regional council seats won by opposition parties and independent candidates occurred overwhelmingly in districts where the Prosperity Party did not field candidates and the race was confined strictly between opposition figures and independents. Rather than reflecting an open, competitive democratic contest, these victories were largely enabled by the ruling party’s deliberate decision to leave seats uncontested, underscoring how rarely opposition candidates directly defeated the ruling party at the ballot box.
The Prosperity Party’s Absolute Dominance
In the 7th General Election for the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HoPR), the Prosperity Party secured over 80% of the total vote in 8 out of 13 regions and federal city administrations. The party recorded its highest vote shares in Oromia (96.6%), Dire Dawa (94.3%), and Afar (91.6%). Conversely, it recorded its lowest vote share in Addis Ababa, where it won 60.1% of the vote. Following Addis Ababa, the party registered comparatively lower shares in South Ethiopia (72.1%) and South West Ethiopia (74%). Notably, the ruling party attained these high aggregate percentages despite recording zero votes in the constituencies where it chose not to field candidates.
Graph 1: Vote Share Percentage Secured by the Prosperity Party (Click on any of the bars to view specific figures).
While the 2026 general elections saw less overall competition compared to the 6th General Elections, the Prosperity Party did experience vote share declines in certain regions. The party recorded lower vote shares across eight regions compared to the previous election, most notably in South West Ethiopia (a 17.3% decline), Sidama (16.4%), and Somali (12.5%). Conversely, it gained ground in Amhara (+17.2%), Benishangul-Gumuz (+12.9%), Addis Ababa (+6.4%), and Dire Dawa (+3.8%), while maintaining an identical vote share in Oromia. (For regions like South West Ethiopia that were not autonomous entities during the 6th elections, historical comparisons are based on the aggregate performance of the corresponding constituencies at the time.)
Map Visualization: Prosperity Party Vote Share by Region (Select the options above to toggle between total vote share and shifts relative to the 6th General Elections. Click on any region on the map to view regional data).
Where Did the Opposition Gain and Lose Ground?
Voter turnout figures published by NEBE indicate higher overall participation in the 7th General Elections compared to the 6th General Elections. In the 6th elections, 37,035,067 citizens cast ballots out of 40,525,964 registered voters. In the 7th election, the Board reported that 52,003,662 citizens voted out of 54,057,861 registered voters, a 33% increase in registered voters. The number of contested parliamentary seats also increased, rising from 482 seats (conducted across three rounds) in the 6th elections to 501 seats in the 7th elections. (While voter registration was initially opened across 509 constituencies, voting could not take place in eight constituencies in the Amhara region due to security concerns).
However, in Addis Ababa, the country’s most competitive political battleground, the parties that placed second and third behind the ruling party in the 6th elections, the Balderas for True Democracy (Balderas) and the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA), suffered notable declines in vote share. Balderas’s vote share fell by 13.9% relative to its 6th elections performance, while EZEMA recorded a 4.4% decline.
As illustrated in Graph 2, which outlines the regional gains and losses of the four highest-polling political parties, the Prosperity Party lost ground in eight regions. Its sharpest drops occurred in South West Ethiopia (down 17.3% compared to the former Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region) and Sidama (down 16.4%). Conversely, opposition parties captured a higher share of the vote across the four regional states created out of the former SNNPR.
EZEMA gained 6.5% in South West Ethiopia, but saw its vote share drop across nine other regions. Notably, in the Harari region, where EZEMA had formally filed complaints alleging improper candidate disqualifications, its vote share fell by 5.8%. The Freedom and Equality Party (FEP) improved its performance across seven regions relative to the 6th elections, posting notable gains in Central Ethiopia (+3%) and South West Ethiopia (+2.5%). The Coalition for Ethiopian Unity (CEU), contesting for the first time in the 7th elections, secured its strongest support in Addis Ababa, winning 8.5% of the capital’s vote.
Graph 2: Net Vote Shifts for the Top Four Political Parties Relative to the 6th Elections (Click on the chart elements to explore the data).
At the national level, EZEMA and the National Movement of Amhara (NAMA) recorded the largest overall vote-share declines. Relative to the 6th elections, EZEMA’s national vote share dropped by 1.2%, while NAMA’s fell by 1.1%. NAMA’s decline was primarily driven by a 10% drop in its vote share in the Amhara region.
Graph 3: Percentage Vote Share Shifts of Political Parties by Region (Select a region from the dropdown and click on individual bars to view changes).
The State of Competitiveness Across Constituencies
An analysis of constituency-level victory margins reveals that the 6th General Elections were substantially more competitive than the 7th. As shown in Graph 4, in 394 (81%) of the 486 constituencies where results have been certified, winning candidates defeated their nearest rivals by a landslide margin exceeding 75% of the vote. In contrast, during the 6th elections, such overwhelming victory margins occurred in 301 (62%) of the 482 contested constituencies.
The overwhelming majority of these extreme margins occurred in constituencies won by the Prosperity Party, whereas opposition victories in both elections featured much narrower margins. In several constituencies, Prosperity Party candidates secured 100% of the cast ballots, districts where opposition parties either did not field candidates or failed to register a single vote.
Graph 4: Winning Candidate Margin of Victory Over the Runner-Up (Select options above to compare with the 6th elections; click individual data points to view constituency-specific margins).
Looking at regional dynamics, Oromia remained the least competitive region in both elections, whereas Addis Ababa, relatively, demonstrated the highest level of electoral competition. In Addis Ababa, no candidate won by a margin exceeding 75% in either election. In the 6th elections, 20 out of 23 winning candidates in the capital defeated their runners-up by margins under 50%. The only race decided by a margin under 25% was won by independent candidate and Prime Ministerial Advisor Daniel Kibret, who ran uncontested by the Prosperity Party.
In the 2026 elections, however, the degree of competition in Addis Ababa declined. 16 candidates won their seats by margins exceeding 50%. Regardless, the two opposition candidates who won seats left uncontested by the Prosperity Party secured their victories with narrow margins of under 25%.
The Oromia region presents the sharpest contrast. In the 7th General Elections, with the sole exception of one parliamentary seat left uncontested by the Prosperity Party, every winning candidate in Oromia defeated their challenger by a landslide margin exceeding 75%. Multiple candidates in the region were certified with 100% of the total vote. Similarly, in the 6th General Elections, aside from two opposition winners and one Prosperity Party representative, all winners in Oromia secured margins exceeding 75%. Across both elections, not a single constituency in Oromia was decided by a margin under 50%. (Regions omitted from Graph 5 represent jurisdictions with very few parliamentary seats, making comparative scatter-plot modeling statistically impractical.)
Graph 5: Margin of Victory Over the Runner-up by Region (Select a region from the top menu and click on data points to view the vote spread).
Does the Electoral System Pose a Structural Problem?
Ethiopia’s current First-Past-The-Post (FPTP / Plurality) electoral system is frequently contrasted with Proportional Representation (PR). Under FPTP, the candidate who wins a simple plurality of votes in a single-member constituency takes the seat, a mechanism often criticized for generating high volumes of “wasted votes.” For example, in Addis Ababa’s highly contested Constituency 11, where 59,159 citizens voted, independent candidate Abebe Gemechu won the seat with 10,459 votes (18%), edging out his closest rival by 8%. Consequently, over 80% of the ballots cast for other candidates produced zero parliamentary representation.
Conversely, a Proportional Representation system allocates legislative seats in direct proportion to each party’s share of the vote within a multi-member district. In Addis Ababa, non-ruling candidates (opposition parties and independents) collectively captured 40% of the total vote in the 7th General Elections. Under a proportional allocation model, 6 of the 20 parliamentary seats the Prosperity Party swept in the capital would have gone to opposition representatives.
Graph 6: Simulated Distribution of the 7th General Elections Results Under a Proportional Representation System.
Across the 486 certified seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, the ruling Prosperity Party captured 15 parliamentary seats that the opposition would have earned based on their aggregate popular vote share due to the mechanics of FPTP. Solely because of the FPTP system, the Prosperity Party secured surplus seats beyond its popular vote proportion in Addis Ababa (+6), South Ethiopia (+3), Amhara (+2), South West Ethiopia (+2), Benishangul-Gumuz (+1), and Gambella (+1). Conversely, the Coalition for Peace for Ethiopia would have gained two additional seats, while FEP and CEU would have secured two additional seats each. In total, 14 opposition parties would have earned greater representation under PR, while five parties, led by the Prosperity Party, would have seen their seat tallies reduced to match their actual vote shares.
Asymmetrical Representation
Turnout data from the 7th General Elections reveals severe population asymmetries across regions and individual constituencies. The average number of voters who elected a winning candidate varied dramatically by region: 302,975 in Afar, 204,744 in Somali, and 128,991 in Oromia on the high end; compared to just 21,866 in Benishangul-Gumuz, 35,408 in Addis Ababa, and 37,895 in South Ethiopia on the low end.
This wide divergence is starkly illustrated in the constituency-level mandates of individual MPs. In the Amhara region’s Addis Kidam constituency, winning candidate Fetena Bayu Shibabaw was elected to parliament with just 840 total votes, representing the lowest vote total of any elected MP in the country. Given that standard NEBE ballot boxes accommodate between 1,200 and 1,500 ballots, the total number of votes cast across the entire Addis Kidam constituency cannot fill a single ballot box.
At the opposite extreme, the highest individual vote total nationwide was recorded in the Afar region’s Ab’ala constituency by Minister of Defense Aisha Mohammed Musa. Minister Aisha was elected with 553,458 votes (99%) out of 560,005 ballots cast in her district. Consequently, while Minister Aisha received 658 times more votes than Fetena Bayu, both lawmakers exercise identical single-vote decision-making power in the House of Peoples’ Representatives.
Based on the total votes cast in the 7th General Elections, the nationwide average number of voters per constituency stands at 158,838. When evaluating this against international districting standards, such as the Venice Commission guidelines, which recommend that constituency populations not deviate by more than 15% from the national average, massive structural imbalances emerge. Because the NEBE’s official certified release for the 7th elections did not include constituency-by-constituency voter registration counts, Graph 7 utilizes data from the 6th elections to demonstrate these structural deviations.
Graph 7: Constituency Voter Size Ratios (Data from the 6th elections is utilized here because the NEBE’s 7th elections dataset omitted localized voter registration totals).
Taking the baseline range of 40,000 to 80,000 registered voters per constituency from the 6th election as a standard parameter, 82 constituencies fell below the permissible threshold, while 170 constituencies exceeded it.
Ethiopia’s parliamentary boundaries were originally drawn during the country’s first post-1991 general elections in 1995. Article 54(3) of the FDRE Constitution stipulates that the House of Peoples’ Representatives “shall not exceed 550 seats, based on population size and special representation for minority nationalities and peoples, of which minorities shall have no less than 20 seats.” Furthermore, Electoral Proclamation No. 1162/2019 (Article 13, Sub-Articles 1 and 2) mandates that constituency boundaries may be adjusted following a national census, and that, excluding designated minority seats, constituencies must maintain comparable population sizes with variations not exceeding 15%.
Using baseline data from the 1994 national census alongside the Ethiopian Statistics Service’s 2025 population projections (because a national census has not been conducted since 2007), Ethiopia Insider modeled the reapportionment of parliamentary seats across regional states.
Graph 8: Projected Parliamentary Seat Reapportionment Based on Contemporary Population Projections (Click lines to view detailed shifts).
According to official demographic projections, Oromia, Afar, Somali, and Dire Dawa have seen their proportional share of the national population expand significantly. If parliamentary constituencies were redistributed in line with these demographic shifts, Oromia (208 seats), Somali (34 seats), Afar (10.5 seats), and Dire Dawa (3 seats) would gain representation. Conversely, Amhara (118 seats), Tigray (30 seats), Addis Ababa (20 seats), and Benishangul-Gumuz (6 seats) would see their parliamentary seat allocations reduced. (Ethiopia Insider)
Acknowledgments: The infographics featured in this special, and the first of its kind for Ethiopian elections, interactive report were developed with technical support from Data4Change. We express our sincere appreciation, on behalf of our editorial desk and readers, to the organization for their prompt, pro bono professional assistance, with special thanks to Co-founding Director Bronwen Robertson and Ella Hollowood, who collaborated directly with the Ethiopia Insider team to design these data visualizations.
